Picture CRedit : @WhiteHouse/X
The unexpected resilience of Iran has apparently left the US President Donald Trump uncomfortable. Four weeks ago, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were expecting a quick victory. Both challenged Iranians to follow up their bombs with a popular uprising to topple the regime. Trump, probably thought of repeating the US military’s lightning-fast kidnap in January of the President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores to US. But the regime in Tehran still stands, still fights back and Trump is finding out why his predecessors were never prepared to join Netanyahu in a war of choice to destroy the Islamic Republic.
Far from capitulating or collapsing after Israel and the US killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first air strike of the war, Tehran is functioning and fighting back. It is playing a weak hand well.
PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH. pic.twitter.com/KfFqefMrId
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 23, 2026
Asked by Fox News Radio when the war would end, Trump answered that he did not think that the war “would be long”. As for ending it, it would be “when I feel it, feel it in my bones”. Trump relies on an inner circle of advisers who are in their jobs to back up his decisions and make them happen. Relying on the president’s instincts rather than a well-worked set of plans – even if they must be adapted or discarded – makes it harder to fight a war. The lack of clear political direction blunts the devastating firepower and effectiveness of the US armed forces.
The Iranian regime is an obdurate, ruthless, well-organised adversary. The regime is built on institutions, not individuals, and reinforced by iron-clad religious beliefs and an ideology of martyrdom. Iran has broadened the war, attacking its Gulf Arab neighbours as well as American bases on their territory and Israel, spreading the pain as widely as possible. Further, it’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Gulf, has cut off roughly 20% of world oil supplies and sent global financial markets into a spin. Short of capturing and occupying the cliffs on either side of the Strait, and a big stretch of Iranian land beyond them, the US and Israel – and the rest of the world – are discovering that the Iranian regime will demand a big say in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has spent years and billions of dollars building up the network of allies and proxies that Iran called ‘the axis of resistance’ that included Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank to threaten and deter Israel, which is why Iran is now demonstrating that a geographical feature, the narrow Strait of Hormuz, can be an even more effective deterrent and threat than its ruinously expensive system of military alliances. Iran can enforce its control of the Strait with cheap drones that can be launched from hundreds of kilometres away in Iran’s mountainous interior. The ‘axis of resistance’ also includes the Houthis in Yemen. On Friday they fired a barrage of missiles at Israel for the first time since this war started with the airstrikes on Iran on 28 February. If the Houthis resume their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia would lose its western sea route for oil exports to Asia.
Trump and his inner circle, probably miscalculated the importance of planning how to start a war, how to end it and how to deal with the day after. The war looks to be turning into a classic example of how a smaller, weaker power can fight an enemy that is bigger and stronger. Trump has now postponed twice his threat to destroy Iran’s power network – which as described by him could amount to a war crime. He says that is because Iran is desperate to make a deal to end the war, as the regime has been hit so hard by the damage and death the US has already inflicted and fear that it might do even more. Though, the mediation of Pakistan and others is taking place to make peace, the Iranians have categorically denied Trump’s assertion that it is a full-blown negotiation. It’s wait and watch in coming days.
