As the year 2023 draws to an end the political temperatures too have reached a crescendo and all eyes are now on 2024. The year 18th Lok Sabha will be elected in the General Elections. The battle- lines are now clear. The BJP led NDA versus the INDIA Alliance. The recent results of five states – Chhattisgarh , Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Mizoram, Telangana often tipped as semi- final gives us a fair indication which way the wind is blowing.
The BJP understandably has been gung-ho and firmly believe that the brand Modi is impossible to defeat and a third term is absolute guarantee like their catch word – Modi guarantee. Well the BJP hopes are based on reasons – In the crucial Hindi heart belt in the absence of a strong Congress who also do not have a strong leader the BJP bandwagon is set to romp home .
Congress dumped former CM Kamal Nath as PCC chief in Madhya Pradesh by Jitu Patwari . But the question is why after the poll rout ? when everyone knew the writing on the wall under Nath going into the polls. In Rajasthan , Congress could not control the dissent between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. It was allowed to fester for long . Congress president M Mallikarjun Kharge too failed to put the house in order. Result Congress decimated in the polls and BJP’s unknown Bhajan Lal Sharma formed the government. Attempt is made to placate Sachin Pilot by making him party General Secretary in- charge of Chhattisgarh but the damage had been done . Rahul Gandhi embarked on Bharat Jodo yatra and it did somewhat manage to change his perceived image a non- serious politician.
The BJP on the other hand played the caste card astutely – Making Bhajan Lal Sharma CM in Rajasthan, Mohan Yadav in Madhya Pradesh and Vishnu Deo Sai in Chhattisgarh . But for the BJP South states remained elusive with the loss in Karnataka and Telangana. After BJP lost in Karnataka, the party has done complete U- turn on alliances. It has now struck an alliance with former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda’s party JD (S) for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The seat sharing agreement will be decided soon . The BJP had in the past said Congress – JD( S) alliance as opportunistic but does not shy away from striking alliance with the same party . This clear doublespeak at it’s very best.
In Maharashtra too , The BJP after breaking the Shiv Sena was successful in splitting the NCP with Ajit Pawar rebelling against his uncle Sharad Pawar and joining the Eknath Shinde ( Sena) and BJP government. The new political development makes Maharashtra election next year very interesting . Whom the maharashtra voters pick will be tough- Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, BJP, Ajit Pawar Faction, Sharad Pawar Faction or the Congress.
The BJP angst against Arvind Kejriwal and his party AAP continues . BJP despite having 8 MLA’s in the 70 member assembly has been targeting Kejriwal over the liquor policy and and the agencies arresting three key leaders – Satyender Jain , Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh. And with ED scheduled to grill Chief Minister Kejriwal soon the heat is on the Chief Minister’s of non-BJP states by the BJP . AAP’s repeated face- off with Delhi LG has further strained the federal structure . Centre vs State visa vi Governor’s pro- active role has made Centre state coordination a tough ask.
The Government and the opposition face- off was seen in the winter session of parliament . The government in unprecedented move suspended as many as 150 plus MP’s . Among those included the aggressive TMC MP Mahua Moitra who had a consistently put the government in the dock on host of issues and particularly on businessman Gautam Adani . Moitra remins unfazed by suspension and vows to be back in the 18th Lok Sabha with even bigger margin. She was backed by Congress with senior leaders Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari, Jiaram Ramesh backing her to the hilt along with several INDIA alliance parties.
What was more brazen was that Mahua Moitra was expelled while the likes of vitriolic Ramesh Bidhuri in his rant at former BSP leader Danish Ali , Brij Bhushan Singh Saran ( allegedly accused in sexually assaulting several women wrestlers and Pratap Simha ( Karnataka MP who gave passes to visitors in parliament security breach on December 13, 2024) went unpunished and remained as MP’s.
Bidhuri, Brij were not the only one who escaped accountability . There was no bigger survivor than Chief Minister of Manipur N Biren Singh in the state ravaged by Kuki , Meitei battle he managed to hold on to his position as Chief Minister. Despite clarion call from all to quit and own responsibility . The much touted double engine government did not seem to work here . The manipur violence is a hard fact not easy to ignore.
Union Home Minister Minister Amit Shah strongly defended government move to abrogate article 370 in J&K ( blamed Jawaharlal Nehru multiple times in his speech) and the move was later on backed by Supreme Court . But Shah’s claim of terror free post Article 370 lies in tatters – with encounters in Poonch , Rajouri and custodial killings coming to the fore and not to forget the plight of the Kashmir Pandits. These incidents mar the development and normal narrative clearly . With SC setting time frame for elections and statehood, government has a tough road ahead. In the parliament security breach Amit Shah on the day marking the 22nd anniversary of the 2001 parliament attack , refused to answer in parliament. Shah however managed to end the year with a smile as ULFA signed a major peace deal in Assam.
Shah’s response to parliament attack was in sharp contrast to then home Minister L K Advani who made a statement in Lok Sabha after the 2001 parliament attack. With government passing criminal bills, election commission bills without any opposition meant the government line was clear – No questions please. BJP which coined Congress mukt Bharat was seen steadily moving towards a sansad and opposition mukt Bharat. And government action in winter session has raised such fears.
Shah was not alone in not answering . Union Textiles and women and child development minister Smriti Irani kept mum on Bilkis bano case , murder of Haryana BJP politician Sonali Phogat in Goa, the sexual assault charge by wrestler’s on BJP MP Brij Bhushan Singh Saran. Instead Irani to divert trained her attack on Gandhi family, Rahul Gandhi . And memes were full in social media that she in-fact minister of state for Rahul Gandhi . Yeas, Irani did speak and came out all guns blazing when her daughter’s name was dragged on in restaurant / bar issue in Goa. Union sports minister Anurag Thakur’s inept handling of the wrestler’s issue has come to the fore. Sportspersons returning Khel Ratna Arjuna awards ( Vinesh Phogat) is concern needs to addressed not brushed under the carpet especially when one aspire to bid for Olympics in 2036. Olympics medal winners demand respect not humiliation.
And the danger to out parliamentary system was aptly pointed out by Senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor who said that the moment has come to start writing ‘obituaries for the Parliamentary democracy’ in our country. The Congress leader was part of the suspended MPs’ march from the Parliament building to Vijay Chowk to protest against the suspension of opposition lawmakers, who were demanding Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement on the December 13 security breach incident. Tharoor, said, “The message is very simple, in a Parliamentary democracy we are looking at a situation in which the government, whose responsibility is to run the Parliament, is not taking its responsibility seriously.” He said that the Centre showed no willingness to honour the convention of Parliamentary democracy.
