By Dr. Arindam Chaudhuri
Honorary Director, IIPM THINK TANK
WHY TRUMP WON
On 23rd of October ‘24, much before anyone had the courage, I had written an article titled “Why I believe Trump has already Won”
(https://www.facebook.com/share/17VKK7xMtf/? mibextid=wwXIfr).
All opinion polls were saying the opposite. But I was absolutely certain. It was clear in mind that Democrats were wrong
to attack Trump personally. Trump had a clear message that his fiercest of detractors knew by heart
1. Economy & Inflation (MAGA)
2. Immigration— Make borders safe again
3. Keep Men out of Women’s sport
4. Global Peace by ending wars in Palestine &
Ukraine.
5. Setting the deficit with China right through
tariffs
Kamala, Walz, Obama, Michelle & the coterie put together, had no message. Their argument against Trump’s solutions to these raging issues were (and continue to be)— he is spoilt child, he is a fascist, he is a rapist, he is a nazi, he is a failed businessman, he is a felon, he is stupid, he is a joke etc & etc. They vitiated the environment so much that normal people picked up their guns and attempted to kill Trump— not once but twice.
What was the end result? Every abuse, vitriol, indictment added to his votes. It’s the Democrats who got politically killed. They became the real joke. And became irrelevant like never ever before. So much so that even within Democrats their approval rating is currently down to 40% and below. They forgot they are talking about a man who had already become the President of their own country. Anyone in the universe would love to be all of that he was supposed to be including a failed businessman if he could become the President of USA— not once but twice
Democrats & Mainstream American Media — it’s hard to actually differentiate between them much like Indian Godi Media — are again making the same mistake. Trump is there with a set of solutions.
In my opinion brilliant ones, and I will just elaborate, and instead of having any argument against it they are back to generic name calling and making sweeping fear mongering statements. Basically they have been reduced to being meme makers. They have already failed twice. Miserably. Trying to humiliate him. Obama famously had egg on his face after humiliating Trump by saying at least I will go down as the President of America! Trump not only became the President but he became twice and is likely to go down as one of the greatest ever.
AM I A TRUMPIST?
So am I a Trumpist? No absolutely not. I am a sworn leftist. I am thrilled to bits by the huge success of the Hands Off protests across
America against Trump & Musk. American presidents take such protests very seriously. After all thanks to the second amendment, Americans have guns. So America can’t risk a civil war— for if there’s one, the army will have tough competition unless they use bombs on their own citizens.
What is categorically wrong needs to be criticised & protested today despite the fact that Trump deserves a long rope to set the economy right.
But
> He can’t pick up college kids “ever” for protesting against a clear genocide happening in Gaza.
> He can’t stop law firms from entering govt buildings for helping opposing parties.
> He can’t ban media houses from press briefings.
> He simply can’t cut funds of the universities that have given America the highest respect in
the universe.
> He can’t have Kristi Noem issuing immigration warning standing glamorously in front of El
Salvador prison inmates.
> He can’t have Musk jump around with a chainsaw celebrating the miseries of people fired
(though across parties people agreed to the need of shedding jobs).
> And he can’t have conspiracy theorists and unscientific anti-vaxxers ruin the entire American
health and scientific research system.
These need to be protested and is being. Trump comes with various flaws and these protests will keep his arrogance under control. I mean who in the world tells college kids to not be rebellious. I would teach them a paper on how to rebel — against every injustice. Though as a father, I would advice my son Che to stay away; At the same time I know I would be so proud if he disobeyed and stood demonstrating against Israeli genocide out there.
And the last thing I would expect is to find him being deported next day for that, from the gatekeepers of global democracy— unbelievable
shame. No one touches students. You hear them. You empathise with them. Similarly I’m glad that the liberal judge won the first major 2025 statewide battleground election in a race that was turned into Trump-Musk mandate with Musk spending an unprecedented 30 million dollars against her. It was important to put Musk down and show Trump that he isn’t going to have a free ride. And secondly past attempts to weaponise the judiciary against Trump aside, Democrat judges have more chances of giving educated verdicts, clearly.
WHY TRUMP IS RIGHT, YOU ARE WRONG
But all these have nothing to do with Trump Tariffs! That’s the most intelligent, measured, experienced & patriotic decision Trump has ever taken. Since about 4 decades he was restless to have some President do this. In his interviews 30-40 years back, he spoke of tariffs and the Japanese take over of the American markets. Then the Chinese takeover. This is why he became president, clearly. And it’s the best thing that any president of America has done in five decades at least, if not a century. The biggest reason for America’s systematic decline has been globalisation. I wrote it way back in 2003 in my book, The Great Indian Dream written with my father, Dr. Malay Chaudhuri.
As you will read above (and realise that for three decades I have also been teaching what Trump is doing today) when your products are superior and you know you can beat the competition you insist on other countries to lower their tariffs. But when they aren’t you keep tariffs high so that your internal manufacturing sector can compete amongst themselves and develop. No can go and win at the Olympics without a fantastic national competition environment. That’s rudimentary economics. Korea kept their tariffs high, had a great national competition between their players. Developed world class products and went and captured world markets. Before them Japan did the same. China has been doing now
Americans have foolishly kept their tariffs down and allowed everyone to come in and capture their markets and ruined their own manufacturing set up. Everyone comes in makes money and goes back. And when American products try to enter their markets they have higher tariffs. Absolutely unfair. And the biggest scary beneficiary has been China. America created an unstoppable monster in front of their eyes. At least supported the creation. Multiple times I have written, totally baffled, as to how they could allow all their investments flow to a monstrous dictatorship instead of sending them to democracies by funding them to grow stronger.
Thus, in effect decades of poor leadership destroyed the American dream of which Trump was a product of. In his lifetime, he kept seeing the middle class get wiped off and the top 1% become more powerful.
And this is what Trump is trying to reverse with Trump Tariffs. He genuinely plans to Make America Great Again and give back purchasing
power to the middle class again. And the big magic wand he is using is tariffs. Tariffs would make sure that the unnecessary imports for
normal consumption become costlier and that would in turn create a demand for local products and in turn increase local manufacturing and
local jobs. Eventually GDP will rise, debt will decrease, and American products will become better and more competitive even in the global markets.
There’s absolutely no similarity between the situation in 1930s and the tariff then and now. Tariffs have not only created countries, they have created industries. It is tariffs that have transformed the Chinese EV production in the last decade from being far behind their western counterparts to becoming superior to them today. Whenever an economy is dominant it should go for free trade, when it is not it should resort to protectionism. As simple as that. And no American consumers won’t be paying the price for tariffs in the long run and probably not even in the short run. Because what Trump says and what he has in mind are always two different things.
He says tariffs but in reality he wants deals. He says Canada will be my 51st state but in reality he wants them to lower tariffs and secure borders. He says we will take over Greenland while in reality he wants China to be scared to try and meddle next door in Greenland. He says he will finish Iran but wants them to sit on table and negotiate the nuclear deal. Like Russia for its security needed to make sure NATO stayed away from Ukraine, Trump made sure to create a ruckus about Gulf of Panama and make sure the
Chinese influence reduces. There’s always a clear method behind his madness. So let’s stop excessive fear mongering over a great decision
and bargaining tool Trump has activated to get his economy back on track.
In effect tariffs will probably never even see the light of the day with most countries and Americans will have a new trade deal with
everyone
WHY CHINA IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE WORLD
As of now, all I will say is I have never seen a bigger global economic havoc created by one man, in my lifetime. And haven’t heard of
anything similar! And the best part about it is— Trump is relaxed and playing golf. He knows exactly what he has done and what will be the result. Vietnam told day one that they will bring tariffs down to zero. Netanyahu came running and I’m sure along with tariffs Trump will set his criminal war mongering tendencies right. EU, just as I give finishing touches to this article, has agreed to bring tariffs down to zero— the biggest victory Trump needed. And Trump has told China to remove the retaliatory tariffs in 24 hours or else face 50% more tariffs from 9th April.
The fact of the matter is his main target was always China. He couldn’t have announced a tariff only for China and invited the possibility of a war with a nation far more powerful than America — not only economically but probably also in terms of military. So he announced tariffs on all, including islands with penguins as the only inhabitants. Now he will strike deals with everyone else, but for China. Hopefully. And if China agrees to wipe off the entire trade deficit, as Trump wants, then that will weaken their economic power considerably. China today manufactures more than the the top three nations of the developed world put together.
It is actually in a position where no one can dream of matching it in centuries to come. India is just one tenth of China and slipping behind by the day. Only one nation, America, can still dream of being fractionally near. And that dream can come true only if other countries come together and make a genuine tariff less trade zone and force China out of their countries.
China is not China. China is today Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Hong Kong, North Korea, South America (as their leading
trade partner) Latin America (as their second largest trading partner) & almost the entire Africa. The rest of the world has Trump as their last chance & saviour. If they all join hands, then there will be two blocks in the world— China, South Asia and Africa in one block and the Rest of the World in the other.
About two decades back I had suggested that India, Russia and China form a bloc against the world. It’s too late now for friendship with China. It’s much better to make a India—USA— Russia bloc (no wonder Trump is nice to Russia). We have our golden opportunity. And we shouldn’t let it go. We did nothing for our country while China created world beating infrastructure and lured all investments to their country. The world’s biggest democracies invested the maximum in the world’s biggest dictatorship. It’s a shame that Americans presidents, one after the other allowed that to happen like spineless unintellectuals. And what a scary world it would be with China dominating further.
Today thanks to Trump American companies will be moving out of China. But this time they will search for secular democracies and India is
barely secular or a democracy anymore. So not everything will come here easily. But we can promise to be a democracy and start doing what
we should have done five decades back— start giving purchasing power to our poor and start building infrastructure needed for global
manufacturing set up (not just big glass buildings where only service sector can come in).
SHARE MARKETS ARE MEANINGLESS
Share markets in my opinion have no value in the long run. 1% of top rich Americans own 50% of the wealth so all turmoil that will effect at the most to the top 10% who own about 70% of total wealth. In India it will only affect 3% people who invest in the stock market. In any case shares will always in the long run give almost same as the bank rate of interest as studies have proven time and again.
In my whole life I didn’t invest a rupee in shares even once. I have taught Financial Management as well as Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management to Business graduates. And thought I understood it very well. Read everything that Buffett ever said front to back and back to front. But never got convinced that I will be able to be a champion of judging intrinsic value of corporations and invest only in them. If I ever had billions then I might have though. But in the long run, no one with limited money ever makes more than his relative who has a savings deposit. So, all investors who have lost money will eventually make the bank interest.
A stock market crash thus is the last thing that decides anything in the long run. Trump has already said that it’s a great time for federal reserve to cut the interest rates. Employment has been doing far better than expected in all this turbulence. Inflation is down and so are oil prices. Plus for Americans truthfully a lot of debt is just a round of printing of dollars away. For rest of the world it’s debt. For them it’s their own currency that they can print at will. And as Keynes taught us, printing notes doesn’t always mean inflation.
In fact Keynes said when the economy is in depression—Dig a well and pour money into that. Essentially called the pump priming method. Put money into roads and infrastructure and the roll on effect of the money in hands of the workers will create demand and that will create production and that will create jobs and the economy will be back. And truthfully, last time they made roads in America was 60 years back. That’s the well where money has to go— Manufacturing. Creating infrastructure. America is a today dilapidating giant. Chinese infrastructure is 50 years ahead of them now. In America, bridges all over are collapsing like in Bihar, India. It’s such a shame. I hope Trump has enough time to show the way and the next guy who comes is intelligent and follows up on his vision. For those who are losing money—Buffet said in
his 2017 letter to shareholders—”There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period.” But should a major decline occur, he continued, “heed these lines” from Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If,” circa 1895…
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … If you can wait and not be tired by waiting … If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim … If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you … Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
In fact though I used to tell my students that the best investment is savings bank deposit or post office savings, today if I had tons of money, I would use all my education to calculate the intrinsic worth of each big company and buy them off.
So no prizes for guessing who is busiest right now? Team Buffet! Trump has given him a once in a lifetime opportunity! So he and his team are planning what all shares have intrinsic value higher than their market value, and gobbling them up with their 350 billion cash pile!! In fact on a day of bloodshed today, he was the only person whose wealth increased!!
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Stock market slide aside, what is fascinating currently is Trump’s absolutely cool and confident demeanour! He’s a genius and so clear. First he waited for everyone to make deals till April 1st. Then he announced his tariffs. And when China hit back, he calmly says that’s panicking and impulsive! Clearly telling everyone to sit back and relax and come and make deals. Get your tariffs down and give us access to your markets if you want access to our markets. Simple.
I do wish he strikes deals with every country barring China. That’s the only country he should today boycott and throw away and let them
service their own closed economy. They are the most dangerous country in the world today— despite my huge appreciation for their
development and growth. The point is, if not America, who takes on China?? They are the clear and present danger for every country in the
world.
Trump is probably screwing scientific research in health. Probably he is taking taking the LGBTQI movement a bit back (I can’t actually say). But this could be the best thing that’s happened to America in about 5 decades (which coincided with Chinese growth).
China is worlds enemy No.1. No one can imagine how dangerous they are. If they want they can overnight send bombs to the entire world on all sides and take on everyone alone. Russia Europe (with their rusting arms) and India will lose before the war starts. Only America might put up a fight. The key is China needs to be reigned in. The entire world needs to come together. Only Trump has been talking about China for years. No world leader does. That’s because the extreme low IQ visionless global leaders have no idea about what the world needs. At the most they understand local politics. And yes they understand some slogans like climate change. A hundred thousand years before climate change really impacts anyone, China would have impacted and ruthlessly walked all over them. That needs to sink in.
The intelligence of all Bidens and Obamas of the last five decades has created this gigantic monster. And Trump is the only one trying to
undo the wrong. I don’t like him because of the reasons republicans like him. I like the fact that he knows what will appeal to them and gets their votes and then does things that he believes in.
The media never understands it. Media is filled with unintelligent low paid fresh graduates who at best can do a post incident analysis. Did they see Japanese miracle coming and then them taking over America? China taking over America? Korea taking over America? Or even Vietnam and Cambodia making an impact? Only a visionary will see. And know what went wrong. And then decide I got to do it right.
TRUMP IS DOING THAT.
Bringing manufacturing back to USA. It won’t come in a day. But if it does, it will be reversing five decades of American foolishness. And
destruction of the Great American Dream. Systematically, in favour of the billionaire class and making the middle class disappear. That’s all the Bush to Obama and WaPo to NYT combined intelligence has contributed to America. There’s no American Dream left. Trump was a product of the American Dream. He’s seen it all in his 80 years and saw it disappearing Every word he says on the economy is gold. American Dream was the middle class dream. Today the entire middle class owns less than what the top 1% owns. So Trump like a hidden socialist out there is trying to set things right. All the losses that have happened are to his billionaire friends.
Didn’t he know? Of course he knew. That’s why he disappears into his golf course—to stay inaccessible to them whenever he wishes. In fact
Trumps biggest achievement in last 6 months has been making Musk pay for his elections, make him do the dirty job in DOGE and then
wiping off 40% of his wealth.
I genuinely hope Baron Trump secretly records what his dad comes home and says and one day reveals it all to the world! How he played to
Elon’s child ego and need for recognition and then left him high and dry. I do pity the guy. He gave a great EV, funded chat GPT, created
GROK, created Startlink, is planning to take humankind to Mars with his Space X, brought back Sunita Williams. He deserves better. Maybe
Trump will leave him with a rocket deal or something to make up eventually!
IF YOU HATE TRUMP, THIS IS HOW TO BEAT TRUMP NEXT TIME
Trump is the leader of the greatest democracy and has won against impossible odds. They indicted him on 34 useless counts. There were
two assassination attempts on him. Let’s give him bit of credit for what he is.
He isn’t Modi. He isn’t Putin. He isn’t Hitler for sure. In fact Trump won because Democrats & their media stooges called him a Hitler and a rapist instead of arguing step by step why their own policies were better. No one in right senses would believe he is Hitler. He was already there for four years in office. He was no Hitler. And rapist allegation was the greatest joke. No one again believed that 20 years back Trump would have seen a girl entering a changing room in a department store and followed her and raped her by shoving her against the wall. Like really?
You go to a department store. You know there are no cameras. You see a famous man. You come back home and tell your friend, “Hey!
Guess who I saw in the store today! It was Trump! And you won’t believe when he saw me going to the changing room he actually followed
me there and just pushed me against the wall and had sex!”
And 20 years later you go the court and say I even told my friend after I got raped — the only proof. We need to get over all of this.
We need to now give respect to what Trump stands for. And argue point to point. And win back on a few very important things.
Health. Genuine LGBTQI concerns. Students’ right to protest. Every intelligent person in America needs to systematically argue. No
sweeping run downs like Obama, Kamala, Walz and Michelle did from a high pedestal. The mockery, the hollow laughs of Rachel Maddow
and ilk isn’t working. It’s lazy. It’s unintelligent. It’s actually classless.
Mainstream media needs to show respect to their mandate. Their argument. Their smartness. They have to call his team smart, for they are. More importantly, they have to call his base smart. And then ask how do smart people like you (like the cowboys and primary school pass farmers of Texas and Midwest) not realise Israelis are doing a genocide.
The one who does that best will even have a chance at beating Trump’s candidate in 2028. Plus the one who gets women united behind him/her. And ideally with an intelligent sense of humour, if not a “vicious sense of humour” that Jordan Peterson recently branded
the Trump humour as. These are days when people are bored of politicians and need comedy in everything including them. You can’t get too
serious and win. Not if the person against you is Trump. And the more anyone laughs at him the more they will become irrelevant. As Obama
became. There’s another thing that’s becoming a key to political success— MAKING WEAK & ILLITERATE MEN FEEL POWERFUL. It is a key reason for the popularity of, on one extreme an Andrew Tate and on the other extreme a Trump himself. We need to understand the changing dynamics of the social media generation where the sense of alienation is growing more and more while access to a glimpse into the lives of the happier lot is increasing. This has been the key to Modi/ Trump success. In India’s pathetic band of hooliganism outside Mosques, there’s no role of women. Never forget that.
So the next leader has to appeal to them or the women. Or ideally to both— like Trump. Just check out the line up of women in Trump’s inner circle. All extremely smart. Extremely well spoken. His young press secretary has a good sense of humour and is taking on the press super efficiently on a daily basis, defending what seems impossible to defend. They are taking away such a huge section of women with them who should ideally be against the Trump-Tate league of men.
Basically the LEFT LUNATICS as Trump loves to call them, need to look within and get a reality check if they want to have a chance again. The truth is the reason behind the rise and rise of right wing lunatics is that the leftists have also become lunatics. Left has now a way of ruining everything good.
We needed LGBTQI freedom. Instead we put them in girls sports and their bathrooms. We need a world with sympathy towards migrants. Instead we were filling our countries with uneducated uncultured religious extremists.
Left has to change this if they want to have any chance at success, across the world, anyone time soon again. The only leftist drawing crowds is Bernie Sanders. Guess why? Because he doesn’t do unsubstantiated name calling. On Trump Tariffs, the otherwise outspoken Bernie has maintained complete silence over the last 6 days now. Though Bernie isn’t an economist, still I’m waiting for him to say a word or two, specially specially given that he is anti oligarchy and this is the biggest blow to oligarchs anyone has knowingly given in the history of mankind! Bernie has often praised Trump in past, and this time he is perhaps amazed. His normal debate won’t work anymore. Working class doesn’t invest in shares. And everything else is looking up for them.
Not because Trump tweeted, but because that’s what data says.
CONCLUSION
Bernie the only left wing sane voice is left silent. Oligarchs are losing money. The working class in America are finding goods cheaper in the markets. China has a 105% tariff. Rest everyone else is striking a deal with Trump and doing away with the tariff. So there’s basically no tariff finally!
America is benefiting and opening up new markets for its companies. And most importantly China now knows their clever silent conquest of
the world has been seen through by an intelligent and genuine world leader. I will conclude by saying it’s a great time to be
alive! We are lucky to see these times and learn what true leadership can be and what is the true meaning of THE ART OF THE DEAL!
