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The recent Chinese intrusion into Ladakh might as well be a diversionary tactical move to facilitate faster action on the eastern sector of the LAC- Arunachal Pradesh as the work on railway construction to link Tibet and South China, when completed would give the PLA a huge strategic advantage in the area it claims as Southern Tibet. The sustained Chinese support to all North East insurgent groups (Ref. Bertil Lintner- Great Game East) and especially to the Manipuri, Naga and ULFA insurgent groups with arms and logistics from Ruili of Yunan province of South China bordering Myanmar is certain to cause increased internal security problems.
Further, extension of ILP system to Manipur and Dimapur area of Nagaland in 2020 have led to demands for extension of the same to Assam and Meghalaya in the continuing unrest in the region over the CAA.
The implementation of Meghalaya Residents Safety and Security Act 2016 , the recommendation of the MHA appointed Committee for implementation of Clause 6 of the 1985 of the Assam Accord to extend ILP system to Assam and the uncertainty about 1.9 million residents of Assam put in the Excluded list of the draft NRC will continue to be internal security issues especially in the ensuing Assam Assembly election. The formation of new political parties- the Raijor Dal meaning People’s Party and The Assam Jatio Party to take up the cause of the” indegenous” people is all set to add to ethnic polarisation in Assam..
The impasse in Nagaland even after 6 years of signing of the Frame work Agreement with the NSCN (IM) means no early resolution of Naga insurgency. In the extended NE too, the security scenario is unstable due to revival of the Gorkhaland demand in the backdrop of the consolidation of the power of the Communist Party in Nepal and the entry of Owaisi led MIM in West Bengal Districts adjacent to Bihar and bordering Bangladesh. This is certain to give a new dimension to Bengal politics in the ensuing Assembly election and add to communal tensions.
Militancy in Kashmir valley will continue -fueled further by the problem the educated class is facing to secure jobs under the new recruitment rules for entry into civil service posts under the UT administration. The activities of the newly elected DDCs are unlikely to make much difference in reducing the alienation in the valley even though the intensity of Pak sponsored terror might reduce as Pakistan is now recognized in the west as ” a badly governed basket case”.
The on going farmers agitation – especially in the North West has the potential to cause a serious internal security situation unless efforts are made to convince the Sikh agriculturists, and those associated with farm trade that the base of Punjab’s prosperity- guaranteed state procurement of surplus produce at the MSP would continue. The perception that the farmers face an uneven buyers market regardless of their farm holdings continues to be strong among the vast majority of the peasantry of India must be noted by the policy makers. And also the implications of support of Gurdwara to the “stand off” near Delhi. .
There are a number of other developments which are matters of concern such as the growing labor unrest across the industrial centres mainly because of rapidly increasing ” casualisation of labor “, engagement of contract labor and the labor reforms laws which have the effect of reducing the bargaining power of the labour. The recent violent protests by the skilled workers engaged as ” contract labor” at Wistorn factory near Bengaluru should be an eye opener for those who repose their faith in ” neo liberal economy model”; and note that it hasn’t worked well even in the US and caused the most serious social unrest and security problem in US history and right now.
