From March 27 onwards till the results come out on May 2, 2021 the country is all set to witness the biggest festival of democracy – elections . With five states going to the polls . Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Union territory Of Puducherry .
The D- Day on May 2 will decide the fate of the incumbent Chief Ministers – Sarbananda Sonowal ( Assam), Mamata Banerjee ( West Bengal) , E Palaniswami ( Tamil Nadu ) and Pinaryi Vijayan (kerala). After the Congress government Of CM V Narayanasamy collapsed and President’s Rule imposed people of Puducherry will vote for new government.
The five results will have lot of bearing on the national politics surely. Of all the states, it is West Bengal which has been hyped ever since the BJP has announced its desire to form a government in West Bengal.
For the BJP there is all to gain and nothing to lose in West Bengal. It’s party leaders have raised the crescendo against the TMC and attacking Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Banerjee too had hit back at the BJP and has taken digs at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Mamata has not shied away from lashing out at Jay Shah , son of Amit Shah and BCCI secretary. It is full blown war between the BJP and the TMC. The TMC had ended the 34 year reign of the Left in 2011 had bounced back to win in 2016 too with 211 seats out of 294 . The BJP was left with only 3 seats.
Will the BJP with its high voltage campaign blitz be able to make in- roads . Only time will tell. BJP has managed to draw in the crowds at the rallies but will these crowds bring in the votes is big question. The 8 phase polls as announced by the Election is a drawn out battle . Surely a battle royal is on the cards. The other contenders the Left and Congress have begun their campaign rather late . West Bengal face-off is clearly a two side battle – TMC vs BJP. May 2 will have the final answer.
Despite the tricky and the contentious issues like the CAA and the NRC , Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the BJP are expected to return back to power. There is the X factor that is likely to work in his favour. That is Sonowal replaced by whom ? The death of Congress stalwart Tarun Gogoi last year has left huge void for the party to fill . His son Gaurav Gogoi is not seen as a face either. Given the Congress penchant for leaving everything to the high read 10 Janpath and interim president Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, it will be no easy task for the Grand alliance to choose its CM candidate in the eventuality of it coming to power.
Interestingly , BJP’s arch rival Congress has not decided to take on the saffron brigade alone . The party which was in power for 15 years under Tarun Gogoi from 2001 till 2016 has formed a Grand Alliance with Badaruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, BPF (Bodoland Peoples’ Front) CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML) , AGM (Anchalik Gana Morcha) and even RJD . Assam votes on a three phase polling. So its is clearly, BJP vs The Rest in Assam.
Tamil Nadu election is sure to be thriller with the ruling AIADMK striking an alliance with the BJP, PMK to take on the MK Stalin led DMK- Congress combine . Chief Minister E Palaniswami will have to do tough balancing act as expelled AIADMK leader V K Sasikala appealed to ‘true followers’ of late party supremo J Jayalalithaa to join hands and post a spectacular victory in the coming Tamil Nadu assembly elections. Her appeal, days after returning to Tamil Nadu after serving a four year prison sentence in an assets case. If the AIADMK accepts Sasikala’s clarion call for unity and she plays key roll in the polls, then it would leave ally BJP surely red- faced since the party has vehemently used the corruption jibe to target other parties .
But a big twist to the polls came as Sasikala much to the surprise of the her ardent followers suddenly decided to quit politics . It has left pundits thinking overboard as to what is is her game plan for the future . is she planning her next move post polls? The Guessing game is truly on.
Sasikala’s nephew and AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran could also play spoil sport if AIADMK does not get its house in order. A fraction ridden AIADMK will be headache for the BJP which is desperate to shed its image of North India party. BJP remember drew a blank last time in 2016. So will it open its account this time ? We will have to wait .
Moreover, what is Tamil Nadu politics without film superstars – After the exit of superstar Rajinikanth citing health issues, all eyes will be on the other superstar Kamal Haasan , who has floated his own party Makkal Needhi Maiam. Will it enthuse the voters only time will tell.
For the LDF led government under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the forthcoming polls is all about existence . As the last remaining state of the left a a loss would end the party for good so far in Indian politics is concerned. It face a tough challenge from Congress led UDF. And there appears to be a consensus among the allies in the UDF as to who would contest how many seats as well .
In case the UDF does come to power would it fall back on the experience of Oommen Chandy remains to be seen. He served as the Chief Minister of Kerala for two terms, from 2004 to 2006 and again from 2011 to 2016. He was also Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Legislative Assembly from 2006 to 2011.
Rallies, charges and counter charges and poll promises will be the order of the day from now on. The nation awaits on May 2, 2021 to find out which which way the people had voted and who has the last laugh .
