The Latest Diplomatic Face-Off Puts India – Canada Ties On The Brink

File Pix

In not-so-good news, India-Canada relations have further hit a new low when Canadian authorities accused the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats as “persons of interest” in the ongoing investigation. This latest strain in relations follows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s assertions in September 2023, suggesting a “potential” involvement of Indian agents in the killing of Nijjar, who was shot dead in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2022. In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma.

In a tit-for-tat move, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, rejecting Canada’s allegations as “preposterous” and politically motivated, particularly given the Sikh diaspora’s political significance as a key voting bloc for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. India has consistently denied the accusations and refused to co-operate with the Canadian investigation, which ultimately compelled the federal government to make these allegations public.

Canada-India relations have been strained since September 2023, when Trudeau accused India of being involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan leader based in Canada. The Khalistan movement is a separatist movement that aims to establish an independent Sikh state in northern India.

The assassination led to the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat linked to the case and a rapid deterioration of bilateral ties, with India expelling Canadian diplomats and suspending visa services. India later demanded the repatriation of 41 Canadian diplomats, citing the principle of diplomatic parity.

India has long accused Canada of being too soft on the Khalistan movement, which it views as a serious threat to its national security and territorial integrity. The Sikh diaspora in Canada, the largest in the world, includes elements that have supported the pro-Khalistan cause.
The tension between the two countries has broader implications beyond just visa restrictions. They have long-standing economic and social ties, are now facing a rift that has affected immigration, trade, and diplomatic relations. Canada remains a top destination for Indian immigrants, especially for students and workers. According to the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), the number of Indians immigrating to Canada increased by 326% between 2013 and 2023. However, the growing diplomatic crisis and stricter immigration policies in Canada are now causing a significant shift in this trend. The diplomatic tensions between the two nations have so far not impacted the bilateral trade in goods between the two countries, think tank GTRI said recently. However, it added that as this dispute drags on, both nations will need to carefully manage their actions to avoid a full-blown economic fallout.

The bilateral merchandise trade between India and Canada actually grew slightly from $8.3 billion in 2022-23 to $8.4 billion in 2023-24. India’s imports from Canada increased to $4.6 billion, while exports saw a marginal dip, falling to $3.8 billion. “These figures suggest that, at least for now, economic ties remain stable, unaffected by the diplomatic storm brewing in the background,” it said.

The reasons for tension simmering between the two countries is seen as completely vote bank politics for Trudeau to keep the Sikh community well cushioned to remain in power.