Iran: On The Brink Of Collapse Or Heading Towards Transition?

Iran, a country of diverse ethnicities, religions and politics is under fire. The US and Israel have meticulously declared war on it vowing to make Iran a nuclear free state. But the fight seems to be getting only worse by the day. Since no western planning for the aftermath of the regime’s possible collapse has been made, balkanisation is a real possibility. Iran is not an artificial state drawn up by foreign office planners, but the fear of separatism stalks the leadership of a country in which Persians make up only 50% of the country. About a quarter are Azeri or Turkic people (including the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei), and there are Balochs, Kurds, Arabs, and smaller groups of Jews, Assyrians, and Armenians.

Following the 9/11 attacks on the US, former President George W Bush, in a State of the Union address, said Iran was part of an “Axis of Evil” alongside Iraq and North Korea. At the time, Iran had been parlaying with the US behind the scenes to target their mutual foes – the Taliban in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda. The cooperation was soured, and by the end of 2022, the international community saw highly enriched uranium in Iran, inviting more sanctions.

Between 2013 and 2015, former US President Barack Obama began high-level talks with Iran. In 2015, Tehran agreed to the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that would limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for an easing of sanctions. Unfortunately, under President Donald Trump’s first term, the US unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 and slapped back sanctions against Iran. Trump and Israel had been critical of the deal. Iran also called off its commitments and began producing enriched uranium beyond the limits the deal had imposed.

With United States-Iran tensions now brewing to the highest point in decades after Trump ordered direct strikes that he said “obliterated” key nuclear facilities across the Middle Eastern country. US agencies claimed it to be a highly sophisticated covert attack involving more than 125 US aircraft and 75 precision bombs. Washington said it “devastated” Iran’s nuclear sites, but Tehran has warned it will retaliate.
Whereas, Israel, which has long considered Iran a threat, launched unprecedented strikes across Iran last week after accusing the country of developing nuclear weapons. Israeli claims have not been backed by any credible proof, but Trump dragged the US into the war following the Israeli strikes.

A revolution would probably see the collapse of Iran’s unique religious governing structure topped by the supreme leader, a clerical figure. If it was clear that the 86-year-old supreme leader was refusing all concessions on its nuclear program, and was seen to have lost touch with reality, he could be removed either from the streets or in a more orderly way by factions in the army.

Since many of the key Revolutionary Guards leadership have been killed. Many officers, critical of regime corruption and Mossad penetration, who could lead an internal coup in part to forestall a full revolution. During its war with Iraq, Iran sustained unfathomable losses among its ground troops, but this is an air war that it has already lost.

If implosion occurs, the person who would most like to return in triumph is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown during the 1979 revolution. The crown prince has name recognition and some older monarchists recall the Shah’s rule through rose-tinted glasses. He has been saying the regime is on the brink of collapse and offering himself as the figurehead of a democratic transition.

He said, “We see a leader who is hiding in a bunker like a rat whilst many high elements are taking flight from Iran. I have stepped in to lead this campaign at the behest of my compatriots. I have a plan for Iran’s future and recovery.” But there are doubts about his understanding of contemporary Iran, a country he left aged 17.

Rumours have spread of an emergency government, with talk that two of Iran’s most sophisticated leaders, former president Hassan Rouhani and former foreign minister Javad Zarif could form a tandem – possibly alongside the former speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani.
Ultimately if the structures of repression fray it will depend on the Iranians themselves. Many Iranians detest the regime – for a variety of reasons – but they equally detest what Israel is doing.

Iranians say they feel caught in a war that is not theirs, waiting for the deaths of those who brought them nothing but silence, torture, and poverty. But Iranians also say they have seen what Israel has done to Gaza, and they do not want Tehran to become another Gaza. As the regime totters, the uncertainty about what may come next may be its best chance of survival.