Ebrahim Raisi Death: Many Unanswered Questions

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The sudden death of President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials in a helicopter crash, left Iran in mourning. Thousands stormed the streets of Iran to pay their last respects to the departed leader, while the world is closely watching the aftermath and the implications on geopolitical equations.

The crash, which took place in northwest Iran, comes at a very critical time as far as the West Asia region is concerned. For the past seven months, Israel has waged a war in Gaza that was triggered by a Hamas attack on Israeli cities. Recently, major escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran were seen when Iran launched a volley of missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted by its Iron Dome aerial defence system. According to the Iranian officials, the attack was in retaliation to the bombing of its embassy building in Syria by suspected Israeli warplanes. Tel Aviv responded by a limited attack on a missile defence system in Iran’s Isfahan province that also hosts a uranium enrichment plant.

The incident, however, is unlikely to change Iran’s equations with other countries with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling the shots. The government has already said it will operate without disruption. With Raisi’s uncharismatic political presence, it will be business as usual in Iran, because the role of President in Iran’s political system is more like that of a prime minister serving under a powerful clerical monarch. Thus, the idea that Raisi’s passing could lead to significant political turmoil underestimates the nature and structural depth of Iran’s leadership. In broader foreign policy matters, including negotiations and relations with Western countries, neither Raisi nor the Foreign Minister have had any significant role in setting strategic directions. Thus, the structure of Iranian foreign policy, deeply rooted in the authority of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC and supported by strategic international alliances, remains unaltered. Therefore, Raisi’s death is unlikely to change the fundamental policies and postures of the Iranian regime.

Talking about Iran’s relations with the US, a strong ally of Israel, is yet to be seen. The past few years have seen critical developments in US-Iran ties over Tehran’s nuclear push. In 2018, then US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, an agreement on Iranian nuclear programme and restored harsh sanctions on Tehran. This prompted Iran to violate the agreement’s nuclear limits. According to a Reuters report, after 63-year-old Raisi took over in 2021, he took a tough stance in negotiations, seeing a chance to win broad relief from US sanctions in return for modest curbs on its increasingly advanced technology.

The West Asia conflict raised tensions. Despite its strong ties with Israel, the US has of late tried to de-escalate the situation, and that top Biden administration officials were in indirect talks with their Iranian counterparts to avoid escalating regional attacks. With Raisi’s death threatening to further destablise the region, the US will look to ensure peace in the volatile region.

Paying last respects to Raisi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “he was “deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran”. “His contribution to strengthening India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow,” he posted on X.
The crash comes a week after New Delhi signed a contract with Iran to operate the Chabahar port, aimed at expanding trade with Central Asia. India had first proposed this plan back in 2003, but US sanctions on Iran over its suspected nuclear programme slowed down the port’s development.

The pact drew a sharp response from the US, with Department of State spokesperson Vedant Patel saying that “anyone considering business deals with Iran” needs to be aware of “the potential risk of sanctions”. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar responded that the port would benefit the entire region and a narrow view should not be taken on it. “If you look at even the US’s own attitude to Chabahar in the past, the US has been appreciative of the fact that Chabahar has a larger relevance. We will work at it,” he said.

Thus, Raisi’s death should not be seen as a turning point for Iran. The regime’s limited response to his death reaffirms the established order’s resilience and the improbability of significant change stemming from a single event in such a strategically calculative regime.