Will Results Of Five Assembly State Elections Indicate 2024 Mood?

Rare Bonhomie : Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge

Well once again the nation is about to hit the election button with as many as  five states – Mizoram , Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana going to polls towards the end of 2023 . It is much much the scenario  in 2018 going into the Lok Sabha Polls in 2019.

The BJP, Congress, have expectedly stepped up their campaign for these assembly polls and top leaders of both parties are  travelling in  poll bound states  to address public rallies to woo the voters.

The battlelines are clear – These five state polls are the first test for  BJP against  the  INDIA alliance .  The results will have  a strong bearing in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls . Congress which  is an integral part of the INDIA Alliance  has  in- fact a direct fight with the BJP in these states.

For the GOP  this is a trail by fire .  Buoyed by the success of Karnataka assembly poll win and the massive support received by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress will be hoping to repeat the 2018 feat .

For the BJP too the test has  come for the local leadership to deliver. Already before the polls it seems the Congress is better placed at the moment in the states going to the polls .

In Chhattisgarh , BJP is struggling to find a leader to  take on a hands on  Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel .   In Rajasthan , Embattled Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot  despite pressure for Sachin Pilot  is sitting pretty as BJP struggles to find  a CM face despite presence of Vasundhara Raje . Sidelining  BSY in Karnataka proved costly for BJP will the same happen in Rajasthan by overlooking   Raje time will tell  .

In Madhya Pradesh the BJP  has created a sense of uneasiness  among MLA’s by sending Union Ministers to contest the state’s election. There is inner belief the incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan might not be named Chief Minister. A fear of ani- incumbency  of 20 years under him might hurt them .

In Telangana, the ruling BRS is facing the heat ahead of the polls . The exit of several leaders from the BRS and joining the Congress suggests a possible winds of change  in the state.

A win the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh ,  Rajasthan, Telangana will be shot in the arm for the Congress going into 2024 . But one needs to be  wary of such results too. remember 2018, the results are still clear  what happened few months later.

Congress swept to power in Madhya Pradesh ( but government under Kamal Nath soon collapsed as Jyotiraditya Scindia and 20 MLA’s jumped Ship and joined BJP)  , Chhattisgarh , Rajasthan. But in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019 few months later the BJP decimated the Congress. The gung- ho of the three state wins in hindi heartland fell like pack of cards.  BJP would be hoping the same if the 2023 results go against against them . While the Congress hopes 2018 is not repeated in 2024.

So the public mood can be tricky they it seems vote in different way when it comes to state elections but a rather different pattern when it comes to the position Of Prime Minister and the Lok Sabha polls .  Here the BJP  would be asking with fair bit of audacity replace Prime Minister Narendra  Modi with  Who?.

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi even going on to the extent declaring  in his 15 August 2013 speech that he would be back at the Red fort next year too.    Thereby throwing a challenge to the INDIA Alliance . Moreover, If Brand Modi will be tested  so too will be Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who so far has deftly managed to keep the INDIA Alliance allies on the same page.

Will a Congress win in these states make allies of INDIA Alliance wary or will they be  no matter what  stay united in the alliance  and  are determined  go along with the rejuvenated Congress and fulfill their one mission – unseat Modi government in 2024  remains to be seen . For the BJP the elections will be about how long they are able bank on the star power and brand Modi. The results in 2023 will have reality check  for sure.

while  battle and focus in the hindi heartland the  state of Mizoram in the North- East to goes to polls in 2013 to elect members  in the 40 member assembly

So the five assembly poll results  will answer lot of questions as to which way the 2024 narrative is heading .  In the coming weeks we will take a look the poll  bound states one by one  and find out which way the wind is blowing. So watch this space as we hit the election mode.