#WestBengalPolls2026: Will The People Swing To Modi Guarantee Or Back Street Fighter Didi?

File Picture : ANI

Buoyed by their victory in Bihar , Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not wait a minute that the next target of the  BJP   will be to win the West Bengal assembly polls in 2026 .  And Prime Minister Modi’s clarion call to oust the  TMC government 15-year-one under Mamata Banerjee was quickly lappped up by the Godi media . Who too like obidient student  sang the BJP tune and proudly displayed rather jumped into  BJP’s Mission Bengal . Debates followed How can BJP win West Bengal ? Can the  BJP breach The TMC  Bastion ? etc etc.

Mission Bengal for the BJP  started quickly with visits and  inauguaration of various projects  by Centre and  take a dig at the pace of developments under the present TMC regime . Prime Minister Modi  addressed a  rally at the Brigade ground in Kolkata on March 14, where he said the countdown for the TMC government has begun and giving him confidence was the high- turn-out. AAnd  if they are voted to power  they would seek accountability – chun chun ke hisab liya jayega said PM Modi . BJP were exuberant with the rally calling it a mssive one and a signal to TMC  . But anywhy which rally of the Prime Minister Modi is not said to be massive – game – changer in any part of the country one does not know. Has any rally been called a  timid or lukewarm? hardly any. Godi media too  goes by the BJP narrative without fail.

BJP  aims to upset the TMC  by raising the issues of Infiltration ( Mamata hitting back terming PM Modi as big infiltrator) , highlight TMC regime’s record on women safety ( RG Kar rape, Sandeshkhali incidents) it’s opposition to the  Election Commission’s SIR . TMC  had hit back hard at the BJP too on the infiltration jibes citing the borders are manned  BSF and under the Home Ministry led by Amit Shah. He must answer that first. On Shah’s jibe at TMC government,  Mamata took on Shah head on and pointed out his failures to prevent Delhi Red fort balsts and the dastradly terror at Pahalgam under his watch. So the gloves are off  for a bitter poll battle .  Shah had vowed to West Bengal in 2026 . During Lok Sabha Polls of 2024 Shah predicted 30 plus seats for BJP but instead the tally fell from 18 to 12 .

BJP is really desperate to win West Bengal and the EC  has  made series of changes  in the state administration . Governor CV Ananda Bose dramatically resigned , Tamil Nadu Governor R N Ravi who was at loggerheads with Chief Minister M K Stalin took over as West Bengal Governor. The Election Commission had transferred several key officials of the State, including its Chief Secretary, Home Secretary and Director-General of Police, among others. Further in an unprecedented move depolyed large number of  central forces for the two phase polling on April 23, 29 to ensure violence free polls  .  152 seats in the first phase and 142 in the second phase in the 294 member assembly .

Co-incidentally the EC poll dates announcement just came  a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally on March 14 . That’s classic timing must say.  The large scale transfers  saw Mamata fuming when she  accused the EC of working under the influence of the BJP and suggested that the poll body should “start campaigning for the BJP”. “You can do whatever you want… But all officers are our officers… You may take away all our power, but you will never be able to take away our manpower… The people will vote for us,” Mamata reportedly said. Mamata who is a street fighter and political  pundits recall her heroics to oust the 34 year Left rule in 2011 as case in point .

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah too took a jibe at the Election Commission in a post on X he wrote , These sweeping transfers only happen in non-BJP ruled states & especially in West Bengal but that’s no surprise. However, West Bengal will once again prove what I have always believed to be true – officers don’t win elections for political parties, the leaders of political parties do. No amount of effort by the Election Commission to gerrymander will change the results. Come counting day Mamata Didi will win a thumping majority.

Now to the numbers that matters in the  2021 assembly polls  the TMC  roared to  a massive win despite BJP’s high octane campaign blitz . TMC won 215  (48.02% vote share) , BJP 77  with  38.15%  vote share  in the 294 seat assembly . Mamata Banerjee however suffered a shock defeat to Suvendu Adhikari in Nandigram but won from the party bastion Bhabanipur ( And she will here again  face  Suvendu Adhikari  in the 2026 polls ) .  .The other key factor is the muslim population of  said to be ranging  from 27-30 %  in 2025- 26 . Which way they vote  will decide the fate of the elections.

So can the BJP bridge this nearly 10 % vote share gap. It is a gigantic task? There is no doubt Mamata Banerjee  faces an acid test this time with a much more aggressive BJP and defend her 15- year tenure ..  BJP’s fortunes lies on  local leaders like  Suvendu Adhikari ( former TMC leader who  featured and in the Narada Tapes  of 2016 but the case did not move further after he joined the BJP) ,  Dilip Ghosh , Sukanta Majumdar and others .  BJP had a seasoned wily Nitish Kumar in Bihar to power them to victory over  an untested Tejashwi Prasad Yadav , a Devendra fadnavis in Maharashtra ( situation made easy thanks to splits in Shiv Sena and NCP)   , the onus  now lies on Suvendu and co  to do an encore in West Bengal. Well  May 4th will have all the answers.