SBI Research Report : India’s Economic Growth Is Expected To Be Lower At 6.3 % This Fiscal ; Differs From RBI’s Projection

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India’s economic growth is expected to be lower at 6.3 per cent this fiscal compared to the RBI’s projection of 6.5 per cent, a SBI Research Report said .

The report pegged the first quarter GDP estimate at around 6.8-7 per cent, mainly due to muted private capex.

India’s economy is likely to grow at 6.3-6.8 per cent in 2025-26 on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, though strategic and prudent policy management will be required to navigate global headwinds, as per the latest Economic Survey.

The country witnessed a muted growth at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025), down from 9.2 per cent in the previous year.

Sharing the quarterly growth estimates, the report said the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the second quarter and at a lower rate of 6.3 per cent in the next quarter.

In the fourth quarter of the current financial year, the GDP growth will be lowest at 6.1 per cent, it added.

Compared to the SBI report, the Reserve Bank has projected real GDP growth at 6.5 per cent in Q1, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent, and Q4 at 6.3 per cent.

Talking about headwinds, the report said a major source of concern for sustainable growth is the muted private capex.