#LokSabhaElections2024 : Will BJP’s High Octane Campaign In South Guarantee More Seats ?

Picture : ANI / X

The BJP has already set a  target for itself in the forthcoming 2024 Lok Sabha Elections – Abki baar 400 paar . It is  a slogan / rhetoric that has been echoed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi his party leaders and cabinet ministers in which ever election rallies they are addressing across India .

The slogan is lapped up equally energetically by the Godi media anchors on Super Prime Time with glee and no questions asked . After all who wants to ask the burning question to the government in power . If they do then the so- called Summits will never be organised big way .

And part of the BJP’s mission 400 is the saffron party’s desire to  break it’s jinx in South barring Karnataka .  States like – Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala . The BJP has left no stone unturned to woo the electorate in a big way . Prime Minister Narendra Modi umpteen times has held at various Southern states held grand road shows to woo the people . And each road show  is covered and shown live in prime time  and labelled  – Mega road show / game changer by  obliging TV channels and anchors  in boisterous way  drive home the  BJP mission. PM Modi had made repeated stopovers in multiple southern destinations in the past few months, crisscrossing the region, to get BJP a footing in the south.

Karnataka has been  a happy state for the BJP and despite the change of power/ rather  rotation by the people in the  assembly polls  has favoured the BJP when it comes to the Lok Sabha  Polls. In 2029 the out of 28 seats, BJP powered home to win 25 seats . Now with Congress in power and under the leadership of wily  Chief Minister Siddaramaiah   and deputy Chief Minister and the party’s chief trouble shooter DK Shivakumar, the BJP faces an acid test to repeat the 2019 numbers.

The BJP  in order to  see the 2019 numbers has tied up with JD(S) of former prime Minister H D Deve Gowda.  It is the same Deve Gowda viewers who in 1996 became Prime Minister only to keep BJP out of power . How things change with times really in 2024 .  The BJp had often slammed the Congress when it formed the government with JD(S) and H D Kumaraswamy became CM -terming it opportunistic alliance but has no shame  in striking an alliance with  the  same JD(S) – opportunistic is brazenly replaced by national interest and  push further double engine  government guarantee.   How will the BJP – JD(S)  combine  fare only time will tell . the results of the polls will further decide the future of the alliance as well. So plenty is at stake for the BJP .

In Andhra Pradesh  under  current incumbent  Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy  the YSR Congress Party appears to be in the firm footing . BJP is desperate  to make in-roads in the state . And the desperation  in the BJP has  forced them to strike alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and  Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. The party led by former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu had been a part of the NDA till 2018.

A total of 4.09 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in the upcoming general and Assembly elections to elect 175 Members of Legislative Assembly of Andhra Pradesh apart from 25 Lok Sabha members from the State, on May 13. Filing of nominations will commence from April 18 and continue till April 25, polling will be on May 13, and the counting is scheduled for June 4.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly said he is waging a war against the corrupt and hence it interesting how he manages to woo the voters in Andhra Pradesh the reasons of his party’s alliance with the TDP . Since it’s TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was arrested on September 9, 2023, for allegedly misappropriating funds from the Skill Development Corporation when he was the chief minister in 2015.
According to officials, the case pertains to the establishment of clusters of Centers of Excellence (CoEs) in the state of Andhra Pradesh, with a total estimated project value of ₹300 crore. The agency officials also claimed that the alleged fraud has caused a huge loss to the state government in excess of ₹300 crores. The high court had converted Naidu’s four-week interim medical bail, granted on October 31, 2023, into absolute bail on November 20 last year and ordered his release considering his age, age-related ailments, non-flight risk and other reasons. What happens to the case against Naidu ? and what happened to the famous line of Prime Minister Narendra Modi – Na Khaunga Na Khane Dunga.

Telangana will see a three party fight Congress, BRS and BJP trying to make an entry. 17 seats are up for grabs . BJP has fielded Madhavi Latha, a classical dancer, and an entrepreneur, to take on sitting MP and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi in Hyderabad. The Hyderabad constituency, comprising the old city of Hyderabad with a predominantly Muslim population, has been an AIMIM bastion. BRS is trying to ward off the involvement on the Delhi Liquor scam as party leader and daughter of KCR K Kavitha had been arrested by ED first and CBI in the case . Will this taint mar BRS campaign remains to be seen. Current incumbent Congress CHief Minister A Revanth Reddy faces the task of getting Congress handsome returns in the state since the GOP had come power by big majority in the state ousting KCR’s BRS in 2023 assembly polls.

BJP has places huge hopes of improving/ improving their vote share in Tamil Nadu on former IPS officer who is also the party’s president K Annamalai. Annamalai has been  leading spirited campaign to woo the masses and  get them to beleive in the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantee and a developed India by 2047.  He has lead several padyatras to  woo the lectorate and and persuaded Prime Minister to address several rallied across the state . And yes also taking on the DMK, Congress . Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his various road shows in the state slammed the DMK over corruption,  lack of development, family rule among others.

Responding to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scathing attack, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin hit back hard indicating the polls will be bitter and aggressive . To the prime minister’s charge about dynastic politics and corruption in the state, Stalin, the DMK president, said, “If a university for corruption is to be established, then Modi will be the right person to become its chancellor.” “One may ask why. The answer is from electoral bonds, to PM Cares Fund and the BJP ‘washing machine’ of saffronising tainted leaders, the BJP is corrupt,” he said, while addressing an election rally recently. Tamil Nadu has 39 seats to the Lok Sabha and DMK has an alliance with the Congress and is part of the  India Alliance.  The Godi media seemed obsessed  with  K Annamalai and have touted or rather tipped him as a game changer in Tamil Nadu politics . Will he be able to deliver?  Jun4 will have the answer. The  state goes to polls on a single day voting on April 19.

In God’s own country Kerala . . too the BJP has not given up hope to  make a mark / win a seat. It has like in other Southern states left no stone unturned to woo the lectorate . But only to be left disappointed . In 2019 – Indian National Congress led United Progressive Alliance swept 19 out of 20 seats in the state. BJP got 15% vote share but could not get a seat in the state . BJP task is cut-out this time too with incumbent government of Pinarayi Vijayan ( CPI-M) at the helm of the state is likely to improve it’s prvious dismal tally of one seat. On April 26 people of Kerala will decide who they will back CPI(M), Congress, BJP.

So given the overall picture of the southern state, it is clear that BJP will have tough ask and winning in south is no easy cake walk as assumed or debated in super Prime time with big banner headlines.  June 4 will reveal whether the BJP’s southern juggernaut of high  octane rallies and often termed mega road  shows are success or not ? So let’s wait and watch  ahead.