National
IMD Expects Below-Normal Southwest Monsoon This Year
The department stated that while weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics.
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The India meteorological department ohas projected that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) over the country is most likely to be below normal, estimated at 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of +-5 percent.
According to IMD, the LPA of seasonal rainfall for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm.
The forecast indicates a higher probability of rainfall falling in the “below normal” (90-95 percent of LPA) and “deficient” (less than 90 percent) categories.
The department stated that while weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics.
However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the possible development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
IMD further noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail at present, with climate models indicating a likely shift towards positive IOD conditions in the latter part of the monsoon season.
On snow cover, IMD said that the Northern Hemisphere experienced slightly below-normal snow cover between January and March 2026.
It added that reduced snow cover generally has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall over India.